The US Government wants to end the Ukraine War by proposing a 30-days ceasefire and then making it a permanent truce.
Both Ukraine and the Russian Federation say that they want permanent peace, but their visions of peace and the ways to achieve it are fundamentally different. This situation raises 2 questions: (1) can a 30 days ceasefire be achieved and (2) can the 30 days ceasefire be used to achieve permanent peace?
To have any real meaning the 30-days ceasefire must be total cessation of all military activities within the conflict area, including any activities leading to increase in number of troops, arms and munitions. All military aid must be stopped within this period.
This needs to be supervised by a team of representatives of both the sides and impartial observers. A suggested team would be: (1) Ukraine - party, (2) Russian Federation - party, (3) USA - chief negotiator, (4) KSA - impartial observer, (5) Qatar - impartial observer.
If both the parties agree to such ceasefire and do not violate the above conditions, then such ceasefire is possible. But what will such conflict freeze achieve?
It is assumed that within this period the parties will be working out a permanent peace agreement which will end all hostilities between the parties.
But this can succeed only if it is possible to reach such agreement to the satisfaction of both the parties. Is this possible?
The main points of the disagreement are (1) the final borders and (2) security arrangements to prevent either party to violate the peace agreement.
The position of the Russian Federation on these issues is:
The position of Ukraine on these issues is:
Thus, it is clear that the parties requirements for peace are 100% incompatible, and peace between them can only be achieved and maintained by application of external force.
The USA officials are presently working to persuade the parties to make mutual concessions, but will mere persuasion be enough to achieve that?
Given the present position of Ukraine, and of the supporting it European countries, the only way to force Ukraine to abandon its claims to the areas presently held by the RF is to end all the US military and financial support for Ukraine, and to force the Ukraine-supporting European countries to end their military support for Ukraine. This would be acceptable to the RF, and the war will end at the present lines.
And to make it permanent peace all European hostilities to the Russian Federation need to be abandoned and normal peaceful relations between the RF and European countries established.